Stop Building Software. Start Cultivating It

There's a pervasive anxiety in the software industry. It's the feeling of never being good enough, of working late with the constant worry that what you just shipped will explode in production. It's the pressure to go faster, even when you know you're sacrificing quality. It's the frustration of feeling unprofessional, of never quite reaching a state of sustainable, high-impact work. Many of us have been there, living with this constant, low-grade stress.

But there is a better way. There is a path to professional tranquility that also delivers greater business impact. It doesn't come from a new framework or the latest methodology, but from a fundamental shift in how we think about our work. After nearly three decades in this industry, I've come to rely on five counter-intuitive but powerful mindset shifts.

1. Stop "Building" Software. Start Cultivating It.

One of the most damaging ideas I've encountered in our industry is the metaphor of software development as construction. We talk about "building" applications like we build houses. This metaphor is flawed, and it is the root cause of immense dysfunction.

It's harmful because it implies a static, finished product. A house, once built, is largely done. This mindset separates the "building" phase from a supposedly smaller "maintenance" phase. It leads to the absurd but common belief that software must be thrown away and completely rebuilt every few years.

We need a new metaphor: software as something that evolves, like a garden or a living system. It must be cultivated and guided. The single greatest advantage of software is its malleability, its ability to change. The construction metaphor negates this core strength. We are not masons laying permanent bricks; we are gardeners tending to a system that must constantly adapt to its environment.

If we saw the nature of software as something more evolutionary, as something that is alive, as a system that we are modifying all the time... that metaphor seems to me to be much more in line with the real nature of software development.

2. Your Most Valuable Contribution Might Be the Code You Didn't Write

Our industry often rewards the wrong things. Résumés are filled with lists of technologies used and massive projects "built." Productivity is mistakenly measured by the quantity of code written. More features, more complexity, and more lines of code are seen as signs of progress.

The truth is that true impact often comes from simplification. The most valuable work an engineer can do is often invisible. It's achieving an 80/20 solution that delivers most of the value with a fraction of the effort. It's proposing a simpler path that avoids a six-month project. It's having the courage to delete a feature that adds more cost than value.

Every feature, every line of code, has a "basal cost", an ongoing tax on the system. It adds to the cognitive load for new developers, increases maintenance, and creates friction that slows down all future innovation. The best engineers are masters of preventing unnecessary complexity. Their biggest wins, a disastrous project averted, a legacy system retired, will never appear on a performance review, but they are immensely valuable.

3. Agility Is a Strict Discipline, Not a Free-for-All

The word "Agile" has been misinterpreted to the point of becoming meaningless in many organizations. Teams use "delivering value" as an excuse for shipping shoddy work at high speed. For others, "being agile" has come to mean "anything goes", no documentation, no planning, no rigor.

This interpretation is a complete departure from the concept's original intent. True agility is a difficult and demanding discipline. It is not a shortcut or an excuse for chaos. It is a rigorous commitment to practices that enable sustainable speed and responsiveness.

In my head, agility is equivalent to a discipline, and a difficult one at that... a discipline of "Hey, I'm going to write the test first, then I'll do the implementation, then I'll refactor, I'll even eliminate functionalities that aren't useful." It's actually a tough discipline.

This discipline is embodied in concrete, systematic practices. On the technical side, it means Test-Driven Development (TDD) as the foundation for design and quality, Continuous Integration (CI) and Continuous Delivery (CD) to enable rapid, safe deployment, and continuous refactoring to keep the codebase simple and maintainable. On the product side, it means applying Lean Product Development principles to validate ideas before committing to full implementation, running experiments to test hypotheses, and ruthlessly prioritizing based on real user feedback.

But as the above highlights, it's not just about additive practices. It's also a discipline of subtraction, of proactively controlling technical debt before it becomes a crisis, of simplifying systems even when they're "working," and of removing features that don't add value. The goal is to maintain agility, both from a technical perspective (the codebase remains easy to change) and from a product perspective (the team can pivot based on what they learn).

These are not optional extras; they are the very foundation of agility. They require an uncompromising commitment to quality, because it is only through high quality that we can earn the ability to move fast, adapt, and innovate sustainably over the long term.

4. Individual Performance Metrics Are a Trap

There is a growing and dangerous trend of trying to measure individual developer productivity with simplistic metrics like the number of commits, pull requests, or story points completed. This approach is devastating. In 2023, McKinsey published an article proposing a framework to measure individual developer productivity using metrics like "contribution analysis" and "inner/outer loop time spent." The response from the software engineering community was swift and unequivocal. Kent Beck, creator of Extreme Programming, called it "absurdly naive," while Kent Beck and Gergely Orosz wrote a detailed rebuttal explaining why such frameworks do far more harm than good.

The problem isn't just with McKinsey's specific approach. It's with the entire premise of measuring individuals in a collaborative discipline. This is a direct application of Taylorism, the management philosophy developed by Frederick Winslow Taylor in the early 1900s for factory work. Taylorism treats people as interchangeable resources to be optimized locally, decomposing work into specialized tasks and measuring each person's individual output. It took manufacturing 50 years to move past this thinking. Yet in software development, a creative, knowledge-based discipline where these ideas are least effective, we continue to apply them universally.

When you incentivize local optimization through individual metrics, the negative results are entirely predictable. As W. Edwards Deming taught, over 90% of an organization's performance is a result of the system, not the individuals within it. But individual metrics create perverse incentives that optimize for the wrong things. We reward behaviors that are easy to measure but destructive to the whole: a high number of commits (encouraging smaller, more frequent check-ins regardless of value), celebrating people for "being 100% busy" (even if they're blocking others), or lionizing "heroes" who constantly put out fires (often of their own making). These incentives inevitably lead to chronic bottlenecks, constant rework, and a toxic hero culture where knowledge is hoarded and collaboration is discouraged.

It is devastating because it promotes individualism in a profession that is fundamentally about collaborative problem-solving. It discourages essential practices like pair programming because it makes it harder to assign "credit." It optimizes for busy-ness (output) instead of actual business results (impact). As Beck and Orosz point out, measuring effort and output is easy, but it changes developer behavior in ways that work against the outcomes that actually matter.

Software development is a team sport centered on learning. The true measure of performance is the impact and health of the team. The most valuable person on a team would often score terribly on these individual metrics. They might be the "glue" that holds everyone together, the mentor who elevates the skills of others, the person who prevents bad code from ever being written, or the engineer who just deleted 10,000 lines of obsolete code, making the system simpler for everyone. Their contribution is profound, yet these metrics would render them invisible or, worse, label them a poor performer.

5. Don't Ask for Permission to Be a Professional

Too many engineers wait for permission to do their job properly. They see quality practices like writing automated tests as something they need to negotiate or justify to management. This is a fundamental mistake.

You don't ask your manager for permission to use a for loop or a recursive function; you use the right tool for the job because you are a professional. Writing tests is the same. It is a non-negotiable, foundational part of professional software development, not an optional feature you need to bargain for.

This responsibility extends beyond just testing. Your job is not merely to execute instructions. It is to solve problems. That means taking the initiative to understand the "why" behind a feature, respectfully challenging requirements that don't make sense, and proposing simpler, better solutions. This isn't overstepping; it is the very core of engineering. By taking this professional responsibility, you build trust, earn autonomy, and position yourself to make a real, lasting impact.

Conclusion: A More Sustainable Future

The key to a more sustainable, impactful, and professionally satisfying career is to abandon the "construction" mindset. When we stop thinking of ourselves as builders of static artifacts and start seeing ourselves as cultivators of living, evolving systems, everything changes.

This single shift in perspective is the thread that connects all five of these principles. It leads us to value subtraction over addition, to embrace discipline over chaos, to measure team impact over individual output, and to take ownership of our professional standards. It is the path away from anxiety and toward durable, meaningful work.

The arrival of AI does not invalidate these principles; it reinforces them. If anything is going to change, it's that these mindset shifts will become more critical, not less. When we can generate code faster than ever, distinguishing between building and cultivating becomes more important than ever. When AI can produce features at unprecedented speed, knowing what NOT to build becomes the differentiating skill. The tools evolve, the disciplines adapt, but the goal remains constant: sustainable impact over time, real value delivered, and complexity kept under control. Now we have new tools and evolving disciplines, but they're still pursuing the same fundamental objective.

What is one "construction" habit you can challenge in your team this week to start cultivating your software instead?

References

• Stop Building Waste: 6 Principles for High-Impact Engineering Teams Eduardo Ferro (2025)
  eferro.net/stop-building-waste
  A complementary piece exploring how to maximize outcomes while minimizing software complexity.
• Perverse Incentives, Predictable Results: When Your System Sabotages Your Teams Eduardo Ferro (2025)
  eferro.net/perverse-incentives
  Explores how Taylorist thinking creates perverse incentives in software development and offers systemic solutions.
• Measuring developer productivity? A response to McKinsey Kent Beck and Gergely Orosz (2023)
  Kent Beck's version | Gergely Orosz's version
  A detailed rebuttal to McKinsey's framework, explaining why measuring effort and output damages engineering culture.
• Yes, you can measure software developer productivity McKinsey (2023)
  mckinsey.com
  The original McKinsey article proposing individual developer productivity metrics.
• Basal Cost of Software Eduardo Ferro (2021)
  eferro.net/basal-cost-of-software
  Introduces the concept of ongoing cognitive and maintenance costs each feature adds to a system.
• Extreme Programming Explained: Embrace Change Kent Beck (1999, 2nd Ed. 2004), Addison-Wesley
• Software has diseconomies of scale – not economies of scale Allan Kelly (2015, revised 2024)
  allankelly.net/archives/472
• The Most Important Thing Marty Cagan (2020), Silicon Valley Product Group
  svpg.com/the-most-important-thing

New Site: eferro-talks

I've created a dedicated site to collect all my talks and presentations: eferro-talks

It's a cleaner way to find conference material, with filters by year, language, and core talks.

This joins the rest of my projects at eferro.github.io, where you can also find web apps, custom GPTs, curated resources, and development tools.

The goal is to consolidate scattered material into a single access point while keeping each project with its own identity.

Stop Building Waste: 6 Principles for High-Impact Engineering Teams

As engineers, we've all been there. We spend weeks, maybe even months, heads-down building a new feature, polishing every detail, and shipping it with pride, only to watch it languish. There's no greater professional waste than to develop something that nobody cares about.

This isn't just a feeling; it's a harsh reality backed by data. A huge portion of the software we build is pure waste. But it doesn't have to be this way. By shifting our perspective on what software is and how we build it, we can transform our teams from feature factories into high-impact innovation engines. Here are six hard truths to get you started.

1. Let's face it: Most of what we build is waste.

The first step is to accept the uncomfortable reality that a large percentage of software features go unused. This isn't an opinion; it's a fact. A well-known study by the Standish Group on custom applications found that a staggering 50% of features are "hardly ever used," and another 30% are "infrequently used."

This isn't just a problem for smaller companies. The best tech giants in the world face the same challenge.

The experience at Microsoft is no different: only about 1/3 of ideas improve the metrics they were designed to improve. Of course there is some bias in that experiments are run when groups are less sure about an idea, but this bias may be smaller than most people think; at Amazon, for example, it is a common practice to evaluate every new feature, yet the success rate is below 50%.

If the top companies, with all their resources and data, have a success rate below 50%, we have to be humble about our own ideas. Many of them are flawed. This means we desperately need a process to filter out the bad ideas before we commit to the expensive process of building them.

2. Think of software as a liability to be minimized.

This might sound counter-intuitive, but it's a critical mindset shift. We tend to think of the code we write as an asset. It's not. It's a liability.

Software is "very expensive to build/maintain/evolve." It's only a "means to achieve impact," not the goal itself. Worse, it has "diseconomies of scale," meaning the more of it you have, the more expensive each part becomes to manage.

This creates a "vicious cycle of software." Your team's capacity is used to build new software. This software immediately adds costs: cognitive load, debugging, monitoring, and architectural complexity. These ongoing costs reduce your team's capacity for future innovation. Because this maintenance cost isn't linear (it grows faster than the size of your codebase), you can quickly find your team spending all its time just keeping the lights on. I call this ongoing cost the "Basal Cost of Software", a term borrowed from basal metabolic rate, where each feature continuously drains team capacity, even when not actively being developed.

The goal of a high-impact team isn't to build more software. The goal is to "Maximize Impact" while actively trying to "Minimize Software."

3. Your engineers are your best source of innovation.

For too long, engineering has been treated as a "feature factory." In this classic model, engineers are seen as "code monkeys" who are handed fully-defined solutions and told to just build them.

This model is incredibly wasteful because it sidelines your single greatest asset. Empowered engineers are the "best single source for innovation and product discovery."

Every engineer on a product team should have a "product mindset" and a sense of "product ownership." This means they think about delivering value, not just features. It means they need to understand user problems deeply, which requires direct contact. Engineers should, from time to time, be in the interviews or making shadowing with the customer. Effective product teams are multidisciplinary, involving the "whole team" in the discovery process, not just product managers or designers working in a silo.

4. Maximize Outcomes, not Outputs.

It's easy to measure progress by the wrong things. This is the critical difference between outputs and outcomes.

• Outputs: These are the things we create. Functionalities, Requirements, Interfaces, Story Points. They are easy to count but tell you nothing about value.
• Outcomes: These are the results we want to achieve. Value, Impact, a change in user Behavior, ROI. This is what actually matters.

This distinction represents the next logical step in the evolution of Agile thinking. In the original Agile Manifesto, the authors prioritized "working software over comprehensive documentation." That was a huge step forward twenty years ago, but it's not enough anymore. Today, we need to champion "validated learning over working software."

"Classic" product teams are measured by outputs, which inevitably leads to bloated, low-impact software. Effective teams, on the other hand, focus on maximizing outcomes. Their goal isn't just working software; it's "validated learning." The core principle that drives every decision is simple: "Maximize Outcomes, Minimizing Outputs."

5. Design your systems to enable learning.

If our goal is to validate ideas and learn as quickly as possible, then our technical architecture and practices must be optimized for that goal. Building a high-impact product isn't just about culture; it's about having the technical foundation to support it.

Here are a few key practices that facilitate product discovery:

• Decouple release from deployment: Releasing a feature to users is a business decision. Deploying code is a technical one. They should not be the same thing. "Feature flags" are the essential tool that separates these two concerns, allowing you to test code in production safely. They are also the foundation for running experiments like A/B testing.
• Don't fly blind: You can't learn if you can't see. Your system must have robust product instrumentation, metrics, domain events, and operational data. This feedback is essential for understanding user behavior and measuring the impact of your experiments.
• Create a safe system to learn: Learning requires experimentation, and experimentation requires safety. Your system needs to have a low cost of failure. This is achieved through techniques like canary deployments, a solid experimentation framework, and a blameless culture that encourages trying new things.
• Enable rapid prototyping: You should be able to validate hypotheses without writing a lot of production-ready code. An extensible architecture with APIs and integrations for nocode solutions empowers the entire team. A product manager or designer with access to open APIs can run dozens of experiments and achieve validated learning without ever needing to change the core production solution.

6. AI changes the game, but not the way you might think.

It's unclear exactly how AI will reshape software development, but one thing is certain: we can now generate code and features faster than ever before. AI coding assistants can produce working software in minutes that might have taken days before.

This sounds like pure upside, but here's the trap: if we simply use AI to build more software faster, we'll only accelerate the vicious cycle. We'll accumulate Basal Cost at an unprecedented rate, drowning our teams in complexity even faster than before.

The real opportunity with AI isn't to build more. It's to learn faster and be more ruthless about what we keep.

AI should enable us to:

• Run more experiments and validate ideas quickly, iterating solutions before committing to production code.
• Build prototypes to test hypotheses without the traditional cost of development.
• Adjust and refine solutions rapidly based on real user feedback.

But this only works if we're radically more aggressive about:

• Eliminating what doesn't work: If an AI-generated feature doesn't deliver impact, kill it immediately. The lower cost of creation doesn't justify keeping failures around.
• Controlling complexity: Just because we can build something quickly doesn't mean we should. Every line of code still carries its Basal Cost.

The bottleneck has shifted. It's no longer about how fast we can build. It's about how quickly we can decide what to build and how fast we can learn from what we've built. Teams that master validated learning and ruthless prioritization will thrive. Teams that just use AI to build faster will simply create waste at machine speed.

Conclusion

To break the cycle of building software nobody uses, we have to fundamentally change our approach. We must accept that our job is not just to write code, but to solve problems and deliver value. This requires embracing a new set of principles.

First, recognize that software is a liability to minimize. Second, understand that empowered engineers are the best single source for innovation and product discovery. And finally, ensure that our technical solutions should optimize learning and discovery. By building our teams, culture, and systems around these ideas, we can stop wasting our effort and start building products that truly make an impact.

What is one thing your team could change tomorrow to optimize for learning instead of just delivery?

References

• The Four Big Risks Marty Cagan (2017), Silicon Valley Product Group
  svpg.com/four-big-risks
• The Most Important Thing Marty Cagan (2020), Silicon Valley Product Group
  svpg.com/the-most-important-thing
  
• Software has diseconomies of scale – not economies of scale Allan Kelly (2015, revised 2024)
  allankelly.net/archives/472
• Online Experimentation at Microsoft Kohavi, Crook, Longbotham et al. (2009), KDD 2009
  microsoft.com/research
  Documents that only ~1/3 of ideas improve metrics at Microsoft; Amazon's success rate is below 50%.
• Are 64% of Features Really Rarely or Never Used? Mike Cohn (2015), Mountain Goat Software
  mountaingoatsoftware.com
  Analysis of the Standish Group statistic on feature usage.
• Extreme Programming Explained: Embrace Change Kent Beck (1999, 2nd Ed. 2004), Addison-Wesley
• Empowered Product Teams Marty Cagan (2017), Silicon Valley Product Group
  svpg.com/empowered-product-teams
• Basal Cost of Software Eduardo Ferro (2021)
  eferro.net/basal-cost-of-software

Good talks/podcasts (Dec II)

These are the best podcasts/talks I've seen/listened to recently:

• You ONLY Get Code LIKE THIS With TDD 🔗 talk notes (Dave Farley) [Continuous Delivery, Software Design, tdd] [Duration: 00:16] This talk explores Software Design as the core of development, illustrating how test-driven development (TDD) serves as a critical design tool for achieving modularity, cohesion, and continuous structural improvement.
• Building effective engineering teams; lessons from 10 years at Google | Addy Osmani 🔗 talk notes (Addy Osmani) [Agile, Continuous Delivery, Engineering Culture] [Duration: 00:31] An exploration of how Engineering Culture integrates Technical Leadership, Management, and Developer Productivity to optimize Teams through Agile and DevOps practices.
• Rethinking growing engineers in the age of AI | Meri Williams | LDX3 London 2025 🔗 talk notes (Meri Williams) [AI, Engineering Career, Engineering Culture, Technical leadership] [Duration: 00:23] (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐) Meri Williams explores the urgent need to rethink engineering growth in the age of AI, advocating for a shift from manual coding tasks toward early tech leadership, systems thinking, and a "healthy paranoia" that allows leaders to "surf" the waves of technological change rather than be overwhelmed by them.
• The Biggest Problem With UI 🔗 talk notes (Dave Farley) [Continuous Delivery, Software Design, team topologies] [Duration: 00:15] This talk explains why UI/UX design should be treated as an integral software design choice rather than a static specification, advocating for development teams to own the UI to ensure the system accurately reflects the user's mental model.
• Shaped by demand: The power of fluid teams | Daniel Terhorst-North | LDX3 London 2025 🔗 talk notes (Dan North) [Agile, Product Discovery, Teams] [Duration: 00:23] Daniel Terhorst-North presents demand-led planning as a framework for building fluid, autonomous teams that self-organize quarterly to balance delivery, discovery, and Kaizen based on real-time organizational demand.
• Tidy First? A Daily Exercise in Empirical Design • Kent Beck • GOTO 2024 🔗 talk notes (Kent Beck) [Agile, Engineering Culture, Software Design, XP] [Duration: 00:57] Kent Beck explores software design as a socio-technical exercise in human relationships and economic optionality, offering a framework to balance feature delivery with a sustainable engineering culture rooted in Agile-XP principles
• Rafa Gomez - Attacking tech Debt: A Marathon, Not a Sprint - SCBCN 25 🔗 talk notes (Rafa Gómez) [Architecture, Product, Technical leadership] [Duration: 00:41] Learn how the "Marathon" approach enables engineers to tackle technical debt by adopting a product mindset that aligns long-term technical health with business value and consistent product delivery.
• An Ultimate Guide To BDD 🔗 talk notes (Dave Farley) [Continuous Delivery, Software Design, tdd] [Duration: 00:18] Dave Farley explains how Behavior-Driven Development (BDD) utilizes executable specifications to improve software design and collaboration, facilitating excellence in Continuous Delivery through a user-centric, outside-in approach.
• Unit Testing Is The BARE MINIMUM 🔗 talk notes (Dave Farley) [Continuous Delivery, Software Design, tdd] [Duration: 00:20] Learn how Test-Driven Development (TDD) serves as a critical act of design to achieve high-quality software by specifying behavior over implementation and enhancing modularity

Reminder: All of these talks are interesting, even just listening to them.

You can explore all my recommended talks and podcasts on the interactive picks site, where you can filter by topic, speaker, and rating:

• 🌐 Interactive Site: https://eferro.github.io/eferro-picks-site/

Related:

• Recommended Talk/Podcast Database
• Recommended resources tag

Radical Detachment in the AI Era: Reinventing How We Build Software

Let me start with a disclaimer. I'm an enthusiast who loves trying new things, what some might call an early adopter, a geek, and perhaps a little bit obsessed. And right now, I'm enjoying this moment in our industry immensely, like a pig in mud.

A few months ago, something shifted. I had my "wow" moment, a realization that this changes everything.

For the last couple of years, as a Head of Engineering managing teams of 25 to 37 people, I had become one of those managers who "used to code." My chances of writing anything substantial were practically zero. In all of 2024, I made maybe 40 contributions to my personal repositories: a few commits here and there, mostly small fixes or experiments that went nowhere. The kind of sporadic activity you see from someone who loves coding but has accepted the inevitable trade-off of leadership.

Then, in early 2025, something happened. While still managing the same large team, with the same responsibilities and time constraints, I suddenly found myself shipping code at a pace I hadn't seen since I was an individual contributor. Over 800 contributions in just a few months. Not toy projects. Real, ambitious systems I'd kept on a mental backlog labeled "someday when I have time." The tools that made this possible? Primarily Cursor and Claude Code, with some experimentation with Codex along the way.

That's when it hit me: "This changes everything. Nothing will be the same again." We are now entering terra incognita, unknown territory. It's a time of total uncertainty, but it's also a time of unprecedented opportunity, which is what I want to explore with you.

To Build the Future, We Must First Invent It

"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." That was the philosophy of Alan Kay and his team at Xerox PARC in the 1960s and 70s. They didn't think about building products; they focused on inventing the future itself.

Their approach was grounded in a set of powerful principles. They thought about fundamental problems, not products, aiming to solve deep human or professional challenges. They identified exponential trends and created a 30-year vision. For them, it was Moore's Law, which they used to imagine what would be possible decades later. They explored with radical freedom in intensely interdisciplinary teams, mixing computer scientists with physicists, philosophers, and ethicists, believing groundbreaking ideas came from these intersections. They followed a "demonstrate or die" principle where ideas were nothing without practical, working prototypes. They built tools to build other tools, layering their inventions to create a platform for future innovation. And they always used systemic thinking, focusing on the whole rather than just optimizing individual parts.

A perfect example is the Dynabook. In 1968, they created a cardboard prototype of a portable personal computer. They knew the hardware didn't exist yet, but they trusted Moore's Law to make it a reality within 30 years. From this long-term, visionary thinking came some of the most foundational technologies of our time: Smalltalk, laser printers, Ethernet, graphical user interfaces (GUIs), and the personal computer. They also took object-orientation, evolved it, and carried it to its extreme. Steve Jobs later famously took inspiration from their work and brought many of these ideas to the masses.

A 30-Year Glimpse into Our AI-Powered Future

Following the Xerox PARC model, let's identify the current exponential trends in AI. The capability of LLMs is constantly increasing, with more parameters and larger context windows. The cost of inference is falling exponentially. And if the trends I'm observing hold, the speed of code generation could increase 10x every 3-4 years, though this is more intuition based on current trajectories than hard data.

These trends force us to ask some provocative questions about our profession. Will the strong distinction between "programmer" and "non-programmer" continue to exist? What will our role be when 99% of the code is written by AI? Will code quality still matter, or only "verifiable correctness"?

To avoid getting bogged down in the limitations of today's AI, let's project 30 years into the future.

What will seem ridiculous in 30 years? Not working with AI agents as integral team members, coding manually or "artisanally," and remaining at the same level of abstraction (that is, typing text into files).

What will still make sense? Solving problems using software, understanding and learning a domain, and contributing our knowledge to the business.

This leads to a powerful metaphor: in the future, manual coding will be like doing Sudoku or puzzles. It will be a stimulating mental exercise, a hobby for those who enjoy it, but not a professional necessity for building the vast majority of software.

Look, I know not everyone has had their "wow" moment yet. Your mileage with AI coding assistants might vary wildly from mine. Maybe you've tried them and found them frustrating, or maybe they just don't fit your workflow. That's completely valid.

But here's why I'm making this 30-year projection: I want to sidestep the debate about whether AI "works" for programming right now. That debate is too tied to individual experience and current limitations. What I care about is the trend, and the trend seems clear and irreversible. The investment, the adoption, the sheer momentum behind this technology doesn't look like a passing fad.

So whether you've had your moment of "this changes everything" or you're still skeptical, here's what we can't avoid: the change is already here. Organizations are already restructuring around it. Budgets are already shifting. Roles are already being redefined.

Which brings us to the critical question.

A Call to Action: Who Will Reinvent Our Profession?

The shift we are experiencing is not a minor innovation like blockchain or whatever the latest hype cycle is selling us. According to the models of economist Carlota Pérez (whose work on technological revolutions analyzes patterns across centuries of industrial transformation), this is a technological revolution on the scale of the steam engine or mass production. We are at a turning point that will redefine everything.

This brings us to the central question: Who do we want to reinvent our profession?

We have two options:

• Option A: The consultants. Firms like McKinsey, whose articles on developer productivity reveal a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of software.
• Option B: Us. The community of practitioners who truly understand software's nature, people who have embraced Extreme Programming, Lean, and Software Craftsmanship.

This choice is being made right now. Not in five years. Not when "AI matures." Now. Every day that passes, more organizations are adopting AI productivity metrics designed by people who've never shipped production code. More engineering teams are being restructured by consultants who think code generation is just "faster typing." More junior developers are being evaluated by KPIs that measure activity instead of impact. The window to shape this transformation according to our values is closing.

The stakes are higher than a simple preference. This is a fight for the soul of software development. If we, the craftspeople, don't lead this transformation, the consultants will define the future of our work. And I am not going to like the profession they design for us.

But choosing Option B—choosing us—means more than just declaring we're in charge. It means accepting responsibility for each other. It means the experienced developers who mastered previous paradigms must guide those entering the field during its most chaotic moment. It means creating spaces where experimentation is safe, where failure is learning, and where knowledge flows freely instead of being hoarded. This isn't optional. If we don't take care of our community, we don't deserve to lead this transformation.

Revisiting Our Core Principles: Software is a Means, Not an End

The first line of the Agile Manifesto is key: "We are uncovering better ways of developing software..." It was never a static set of discovered truths. It has always been about continuous learning and adaptation. The prime directive has always been to satisfy the customer by solving their problems.

This brings us to the most important principle to remember today: Software is the medium, not the end. Our mission was never just to write code. It was to solve problems and create impact. If coding is destined to become a hobby like Sudoku, then our professional identity must be rooted in something deeper. The over-specialization that led to rigid roles like "frontend developer" or "DevOps engineer" was a mistake, a mistake that AI now gives us the power to correct.

Consider the software development "Food Chain", which maps the workflow from Opportunity Selection to Validating Impact.

This visual tells a crucial story. The top section, outlined in red and marked with a skull and crossbones, represents the "danger zone" of siloed, waterfall-style handoffs. This is where individuals are disconnected from the customer and the problem they are trying to solve. In contrast, the bottom section, outlined in green, is the "safe zone" where integrated, cross-functional teams own the entire value stream from beginning to end.

The implication is clear: AI makes it painfully obvious that roles isolated in the "build" phase are the most vulnerable. To remain relevant, we must move closer to the beginning (understanding the problem) and the end (validating the impact).

The Mindset of Radical Detachment

To navigate this new era, we need the intellectual humility to empty our own cups. We must unlearn what we think we know to make space for new ideas.

You Are Not Your Code

Because the nature of software is to change, we must practice radical detachment from our creations. Detach from your beautiful code, your elegant designs, and your favorite patterns. Holding on too tightly creates rigidity, turning what should be flexible clay into a brittle relic. Our business is not building finished solutions; it is evolving solutions over time.

The New Dynamics of Managing Complexity

With AI, the friction to generate new ideas, experiments, and complexity is almost zero. The process of software development will no longer be a slow, incremental growth of a single snowball. Instead, it will be a rapid cycle of expansion and contraction: exploring dozens of options in parallel, then radically deleting and simplifying to keep only what works. Managing this explosion of complexity will become one of the most critical skills we possess.

The Great Multiplier: AI in the Forest vs. the Desert

Beth Andres-Beck and Kent Beck describe two contrasting environments for building software: the desert and the forest.

The Desert is characterized by constant urgency, silos, poor testing, and misunderstood practices. It's a place of chaos and anxiety. The Forest is characterized by good practices, technical excellence that enables evolution, and close collaboration with the business. It's a place of sustainable growth.

AI is an indiscriminate multiplier. Its effect depends entirely on the environment it's applied to.

In the Desert, AI multiplies chaos. It becomes a factory for producing "fast trash," turning a technical debt problem into technical bankruptcy. In the Forest, AI multiplies discipline. It creates a virtuous cycle. Good practices like TDD, clean code, and good documentation provide the AI with better context, making it more effective. In turn, the AI makes it easier and faster to apply these good practices, turning them into unprecedented velocity and quality.

This leads to a paradigm shift. For the first time in our industry's history, the economic argument for software craftsmanship is no longer a nuanced discussion about long-term TCO. It is an immediate, undeniable, and exponential driver of value. AI makes excellence profitable in the short term.

Essential Practices for the AI-Augmented Developer

Certain engineering practices become supercharged in the AI era.

Modular architecture is essential. The rapid expansion-contraction cycle of development is only manageable within a modular architecture. Modularity provides the firewalls necessary to run dozens of parallel experiments without the entire system collapsing into chaos.

Clean code is crucial. Semantic, understandable code is essential for the AI to grasp business logic and provide meaningful assistance.

Quality and automated testing is non-negotiable. It is the only way to safely validate the massive volume of code AI can generate.

Small steps remain important. The principle of working in small, verifiable increments remains, but we must be open to the idea that the "size" of a step might change dramatically.

The Developer Laziness Scale

Think of your interaction with AI on a "laziness scale":

• 100%: You write a prompt and blindly accept the output.
• 80%: You glance over the code for obvious errors.
• 50%: You review every line of AI-generated code carefully.
• 20-30%: You code mostly by hand, using AI for autocompletion.
• 0%: You write everything manually, artisanally.

The meta-skill is to treat this scale like a gear shift, consciously choosing the right level of automation and oversight for the road ahead. This requires retaining deep, low-level knowledge even when you aren't always using it directly.

FAAFO and Radical Simplification

The book Vibe Coding by Gene Kim and Steve Yegge introduces the FAAFO framework: a style of work that is Fast, Ambitious, Autonomous, Fun, and creates Optionality. AI is the engine that makes this possible, allowing us to tackle legacy refactors or build prototypes that once seemed impossible.

However, this power comes with a critical discipline. The ability to be Ambitious and create Optionality must be balanced with an equal commitment to radical simplification and deletion. This is where the discipline of radical detachment becomes a tactical necessity. We must detach from failed experiments as quickly as we create them.

Our Evolving Roles in the New Value Chain

AI is turning the "Build" and "Test" phases of software development into a commodity. The enduring human value, and therefore career security, lies at the extremes of the value chain: deeply understanding the "why" at the beginning and rigorously validating the impact at the end.

The bottleneck is shifting to the "fuzzy front end" (Opportunity Selection, Requirements Planning) and the "validated back end" (Running the system, Validating impact, and gathering Feedback). This highlights two critical skill areas for the future.

First, a product mindset. We need to deeply understand the problem, its context, and its intended impact. The challenge is no longer "is the code good?" but "does the system achieve the desired effect?"

Second, architectural and engineering practices. The responsibility for the system's results doesn't disappear; it intensifies. Skills in architecture, security, scalability, and performance become more critical because we will be making these decisions more frequently. AI can accelerate code generation, but the system will collapse without sound modularity and simplicity.

We Are All Beginners Again

Here's the uncomfortable truth: no matter how many years you have in this industry, we are all beginners in the Age of AI-augmented software delivery.

I've been doing this for about 30 years. That experience gives me some advantages: pattern recognition, intuition about what might work, the confidence to experiment without fear. But it doesn't exempt me from the uncertainty. When I'm pair-programming with Claude, I'm learning just as much as someone who started coding last year. The difference is that I have the luxury to be wrong, to throw away experiments, to admit I don't know.

But what about the people entering our field right now? They're walking into the most turbulent period our profession has ever seen, at a moment when the rules are being rewritten in real time. We, the experienced ones, have a responsibility to them that we cannot abdicate.

We must create safe spaces where they can learn without fear: on our teams, at local meetups, in conferences. We must share our experiments, even the failures. We must run hackathons where we figure this out together, just as we did with unit testing and Agile practices in the early 2000s. The difference is that now, the experienced among us must actively lower the barriers for those just starting, because the barriers are higher than they've ever been.

This is not charity. This is survival. If we hoard knowledge, if we gate-keep, if we let newcomers drown in the chaos, we will not have a community strong enough to fight for the soul of our profession. The consultants will win by default.

Our greatest strength has always been our community. Now is the time to prove it.

Your Path Forward: An Action Plan

So, what can you do right now to prepare?

1. Move down the food chain. Get closer to the customer and the problem. Don't just ask "what"—always ask "why." Understand the business impact you are trying to create.
2. Evolve from specialist to generalist. The era of the generalist is here. You don't need to be an expert in everything, but you need to learn enough about adjacent disciplines to be effective. AI can fill in the deep, specific details (like framework syntax), but you need to connect the concepts.
3. Imagine our future tools. We should be building our own AI agents, encoded with our community's knowledge. Imagine a "gardener" agent that refactors code overnight, a "garbage truck" agent that identifies and removes dead code, or a performance-tuning agent that pinpoints bottlenecks. These tools are within our reach.

Conclusion: We Can't Avoid the Storm, So Let's Surf the Wave

We have the greatest opportunity in the history of our profession to finally build software in "the forest," a place where technical excellence and business impact are perfectly aligned. This requires adopting a product mindset and being willing to reinvent our best practices. It means letting go of what we think we know about software delivery, accepting that AI agents will become teammates whether we like it or not, and leaning heavily on our community as we navigate this together.

Of course, I don't have all the answers, and it's not all sunshine. There are serious issues that we, as a community, need to confront: the addictive reward cycle of working with AI, the consolidation of power in a few large tech companies, the challenge of training junior developers, and the environmental impact. These are important topics for future discussion.

But we can't let these challenges paralyze us. The change is coming. We can't avoid the storm, and honestly, we don't want to.

I've made my choice. I'm experimenting, sharing my failures as much as my wins, and making space for others to do the same. But I can't do this alone, and neither can you.

So here's what I'm asking: will we, as a community, step up and shape this transformation? Will we create the spaces where we can learn and experiment safely? Will we build the tools that encode our values instead of waiting for someone else to define them?

Or will we let this moment slip away while we debate whether AI is "good enough" yet?

The wave is here. The question isn't whether to surf it. The question is whether we'll surf it together, or watch from the shore while others ride it for us.

About This Article

This article is based on my keynote "Desapego Radical en la Era de la IA" (Radical Detachment in the AI Era), delivered at Software Crafters Barcelona in October 2025. The talk was given in Spanish and has been expanded and adapted for this written version. You can watch the original keynote and access the slides at eferro.net.

References

• Agile Manifesto, "Manifesto for Agile Software Development"
• Alan Kay, "The Early History of Smalltalk"
• Wikipedia, Xerox PARC
• Mik Kersten, Project to Product: How to Survive and Thrive in the Age of Digital Disruption with the Flow Framework
• David Epstein, Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World
• Carlota Pérez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages
• IT Revolution, "The Turning Point"
• Wikipedia, Carlota Pérez
• Beth Andres-Beck and Kent Beck, "Forest & Desert"
• Gene Kim and Steve Yegge, Vibe Coding: Building Production-Grade Software With GenAI

Good talks/podcasts (Dec)

These are the best podcasts/talks I've seen/listened to recently:

• This Mental Model Changed How I Design Software FOREVER 🔗 talk notes (Emily Bache) [AI, Agile, Architecture, Mental models, tdd] [Duration: 00:09] (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐) Applying the mental model of Test-Driven Development (TDD) as an empirical engineering approach to master software design and manage complexity alongside Agentic AI tools.
• From here to there and back again 🔗 talk notes (Simon Wardley) [AI, Strategy, Technology Strategy] [Duration: 00:57] Simon Wardley introduces maps for strategic situational awareness, detailing how technological evolution, inertia, and the rise of AI impact decision-making and software architecture, emphasizing the challenge of deciding where humans maintain control
• Who Does What by How Much? Customer-Centric OKRs explained with Jeff Gothelf and Josh Seiden #ccokrs 🔗 talk notes (Jeff Gothelf, Josh Seiden) [Agile, Company Culture, Management, Strategy] [Duration: 01:14] (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐) Experts Jeff Gothelf and Josh Seiden detail how to define customer-centric Objectives and Key Results (OKRs) by focusing on measurable outcomes, encapsulated in the framework’s core question: "Who Does What By How Much?"
• Jim Womack on Lean Thinking: Past, Present & Future 🔗 talk notes (Jim Womack) [Company Culture, Lean Manufacturing, Management] [Duration: 00:32] (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐) Jim Womack offers a comprehensive retrospective and prospective view of Lean thinking, exploring its evolution, current relevance, and future potential for a "second lean leap".
• Vibe coding in prod | Code w/ Claude 🔗 talk notes (Erik Schluntz) [AI, Agile, Continuous Delivery] [Duration: 00:31] A discussion on how to safely practice "vibe coding" (letting AI generate code while forgetting the code exists) in production by acting as the AI's Product Manager and focusing on verification of leaf nodes and abstraction layers.
• Analytics for not-so-big data with DuckDB 🔗 talk notes (David Ostrovsky) [Data Engineering, Performance] [Duration: 01:02] A deep dive into DuckDB, an embedded analytical database optimized for running high-performance analytical queries on "medium data" (1-100 GB range) locally on a single machine, with seamless integration for Python and diverse data sources
• The New Code — Sean Grove, OpenAI 🔗 talk notes (Sean Grove) [AI, Agile, Architecture, Devops] [Duration: 00:21] OpenAI's Sean Grove introduces "The New Code," arguing that specifications are the universal artifact of intent, crucial for aligning both humans and advanced AI models.

Reminder: All of these talks are interesting, even just listening to them.

You can explore all my recommended talks and podcasts on the interactive picks site, where you can filter by topic, speaker, and rating:

• 🌐 Interactive Site: https://eferro.github.io/eferro-picks-site/

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